Chinese Dragon Or Uncle Sam's Cabin?
(by SR Nanda | The Statesman | December 15, 2002)
George Bush plans to go in for Nuclear Missile Defence to ensure his country is not taken by surprise by a rogue state. India itself faces this problem. A nuclear holocaust by any miscalculation or intense hatred of a country considered hostile will be the end of a civilised world.
Violent reactions are naturally expected from Russia, once a super power and still a powerful nuclear state; and China with ambitions to dominate Asia. Every country determines its perception of threat and plans its defence accordingly. Weak nations seek allies as happened after World War II, creating alliances such as NATO and Warsaw pact. With the break up of the USSR, the US is the only super power, militarily and financially. And they have no intention of losing this status. The strong criticism of America by our experts and opposition political parties is surprising. Their main fear is that America will become the sole super power and our endorsement will adversely affect our relations with Asian allies. No names, however, are mentioned. To be frank we have no friends in Asia or the world. It is incomprehensible that our experts are ignorant of our recent history since 1947. Mr Vajpayee has clarified that the aim of NMD is to ensure safety of the world against any misadventure by a rogue state. Bigotry and blind hatred developed over the years does not help in international relations.
Fraternal: Let us understand there are no permanent friends or permanent enemies. Only the country's interests are permanent. Our governments since 1947 flourished on slogans and sermons oblivious of threats to the country. Let us have a brief look on our relations with China and Pakistan. Nehru, of the imperious temperament, was intolerant of any advice. He ignored Sardar Patel's 1950 suggestion to beware of China. His gospel of non-violence, panch-sheel and Hindi-Chini-Bhai-Bhai became the hallmark of our foreign policy. The Chinese occupation of Tibet in March 1959 opened his eyes but it was too late. The final humiliation came in November 1962 when China launched an unprovoked attack in Arunachal Pradesh, which shattered Nehru both physically and mentally.
At this hour of humiliation only two powers, America and Britain came to our assistance, the two countries derided by us. Our friends in the non-aligned movement, Nasser of Egypt and Tito of Yugoslavia advised us restraint. For the Russians the Chinese were their fraternal brothers and the Indians just friends. Let us never forget this.
The Chinese again intruded in Arunachal in 1986 and occupied Sum Dorong Chu Valley and still lay claim to Arunachal, Sikkim, Darjeeling and 90,000 km, not yet specified, besides having occupied Aksai Chin area. Recent reports by our ministry of defence that every major city in India is within the reach of Chinese missiles and that China is augmenting Pakistan's capabilities in its striking power to include submarine launched ballistic missiles, in order to achieve its goal of being a superpower in the Asian Continent, somewhat akin to the South East Asia Co-Prosperity sphere the Japanese had dreamt in World War II.
It is not only India that is wary of China but Vietnam and Japan as well. Jane's Fighting Ships 2000-01, the most authentic source of information on armed forces, throws light on the latest Chinese activities against India and Vietnam. In 1998 Beijing wrested control of a number of Vietnamese islands in Spratly Islands in the south Pacific and hence the latter has beefed its military presence fearing a repeat episode.
None of its neighbours trusts China and I say this because of my impressions during one year's stay in Vietnam, Laos and Kampuchea. Though weak these countries are proud of their heritage and refuse to accept Chinese lordship. In the 1970s, Vietnam was invaded twice by the Chinese. Nearer home, 'Tension in Indo-China Border' in Jane's Intelligence Digest in November 2000 is an eye opener. In the 18 months China committed over "100 incursions especially in Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh at an alarming level." Chinese naval activity in the Pacific and nuclear submarines seen in the Indian Ocean left no option except to adopt a pro-active policy by India. No wonder Vajpayee's government was forced to declare China as enemy no 1 and Pokhran tests II and III ordered in 1998. What a hue and cry was raised in India then by political parties. But all kept silent when China became a nuclear power. The CPI had not even condemned China during the 1962 war.
Left's Betrayal: According to the Jane's Digest even Japan is alarmed at the Chinese activities in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. This is leading to changing political equations in Southeast Asia. Even Malaysia and Singapore are apprehensive. India has already established regular defence consultations with Vietnam and Japan and held joint naval exercises including Malaysia in 2000. Singapore has also agreed in principle to join such exercises and one of its senior ministers felt that China and Pakistan are rogue states. Recently our foreign minister during June this year had also visited Australia and New Zealand. There will be no peace unless we either surrender to Chinese demands or we seek allies to checkmate China.
The Chinese ambassador to India has advised us not to support the NMD. The Ambassador also feels that Russia, China and India share similar views on world issues — the latest kite flying exercise. China has suddenly woken up to realities when its hegemonism in Asia is threatened. India must be naive to fall in their trap. Leftist intellectuals and prominent writers appeal for a settlement. But on what terms? Why do they not appeal to the Chinese to return Tibet to the Tibetans and openly declare that they have no designs or claims on our territory? One eminent writer has called our "endorsement of NMD as demeaning", another thought it "long on flowery rhetoric, short on realism". Our former foreign secretary, Salman Haidar wonders "how closely we have weighed the implications of our decision on our traditional friendships and established ties." But he is silent on who these traditional friends are. We have none. The NDA government is trying its best to have some.
With the kind of foreign policy expertise that we have we suffered humiliation in 1962, and find ourselves in a mess in Jammu & Kashmir and in the northeast. Surprisingly, the world ignores Chinese hostility against India. I pose the following question: rather than entering the Chinese Dragon or co-habiting with the Russian bear, would it not be safer to enter what some writers have derisively called "Uncle Sam's Cabin"? We gratefully accepted this shelter in 1962. Now we have the strength somewhat to stand on our legs after Pokhran tests II and III, and it should not be easy to kick us around.
Sino-Pak Entente: Hatred of India is the raison d'etre of Pakistan's existence. It fought four wars with India between 1947 and 1999, and is waging a proxy war for over a decade. China developed close relations with Pakistan since 1966 on the basis of the old statecraft — your enemy is my enemy. Thanks to China's nuclear and missile technology, Pakistan has attained nuclear status. During Chinese premier Zhu Rongji's recent visit to Pakistan in May, he lauded General Musharraf for the 1999 coup and praised him for establishing stability in Pakistan. As a quid pro quo the General endorsed China's fear of the NMD and TMD (Theatre Missile Defence). Trade, commerce, and cultural relations are not feasible between India and Pakistan while the two armies face each other in J&K and Pakistan is engaged in proxy war against India. General Musharraf has often threatened a nuclear war. Power is too serious a matter to be left in the hands of generals, and absolute power corrupts absolutely.
During the 20th century two generals changed the future of their countries and enhanced their prestige the world over — General Kemal Ataturk of Turkey and General De Gaulle of France. Let us hope Musharraf succeeds as the Ataturk of Pakistan, an ambition he expressed after his coup in October 1999.
Friends of Tibet (INDIA),
PO Box 16674, Bombay 400050
www.friendsoftibet.org